. These topics will shape the global health
agenda in 2016, defining what many global development organizations do this
year and how we do it:
1. There are more than59.5 million refugees today.That’s more than at
any time in human history, even at the end of World War II.
The movement of
people – not just of those exiting Syria, but of all who are on the move
worldwide – has huge implications for health systems around the world. The
challenges of providing care to so many who’ve been displaced are staggering.
And what about the families and friends they’ve left behind? Any mass exodus is
sure to include skilled health workers, particularly asthey and their facilities are common
targetsduring
wartime. And when health workers are forced to flee, their home towns are left
without care. As the numbers shift in 2016, we’ll see the true public health
implications of such a massive population of vulnerable human beings.
Of course, these
aren’t the only fires that will shape global health in 2016. Every year brings
adversities or victories we didn’t expect. What do you foresee for 2016? And
are we ready for it?
2. The enduring wealth gap.Globally, the percentage of people
living at or below $1.90 per day droppedfrom 44 percent
in 1981 to 12.7 percent in 2012. Despite this remarkable progress,
the wealth gap is growing. NewOxfam researchindicates that the world’s 62 richest
billionaires possess as much wealth as the 3.65 billion people who make up the
poorer half of the human population. This inequality goes beyond wealth
disparities; it means health disparities as well, as the poor are more likely
to suffer chronic health problems, more likely to fall into financial hardships
because of health costs, and less likely to have access to health care.
3. Politics and power shifts.The stakes are high for global health
and development during any U.S. presidential election year, and this one will
be no different. The U.S. is slated to contribute$37.9 billion in foreign aidduring fiscal year 2016. But changes
in the White House determine development policies and funding, and certain
public health topics become highly politicized targets (reproductive health and
family planning come to mind). For all countries – rich or poor – powerful data
and up-to-date information are crucial when it comes to advocating for health
investments.
4. The health system as a whole.The U.S. government
and other donors are finally recognizing and addressing health systems as
whole, complex entities, rather than reducing them to series of
disease-specific services. There’s even a first-of-its-kind bill pending in the
U.S. Congress devoted to strengthening health systems as part of foreign aid,
and global health security and planning isbecoming a greater priorityfor the U.S. and the global community.
5. Climate change.More extreme weather and rising sea
levels, temperatures, and carbon dioxide levels could usher in a wide array of
human health effects,the CDC warns– from asthma to
chikungunya to mental illness. Will countries begin to make progress in curbing
carbon emissions after the Paris climate accord of 2015? Or will the
commitments made there fall by the wayside? And will progress come in time to protect
the most vulnerable countries, such as the low-lying Marshall Islands,which are
already disappearingas
sea levels rise?
6. Emerging and waning health threats.Polio and HIV are two
of the most devastating diseases of our time – but they’re waning or, in the
case of polio, on the verge of eradication. At the same time,Zika virus,Ebola flare-upsand otherunexpected
threatswill make
headlines in 2016, and pose challenges to global health security. For many
health systems around the world, these dangers arealready in the
back yard.
7. Air pollution.Astudylast year linked air pollution to6 million
deathsper year in
China. Last month, Beijingissued its
first red alertfor
smog. And smoking, which contributes to poor air quality, continues to rise in
China, where it may cause about20 percent of
all adult male deathsduring
this decade. But air pollution is even worse in the United Arab Emirates, where
the aircontains 80
micrograms of pollutants per cubic meter, compared to China’s 73 and
India’s 32. Health workers and systems around the world should be preparing for
a rise in respiratory and other related health troubles.
8. A reversal in the health worker shortage.According to the World Health
Organization, there’s aglobal shortage
of 7.2 million doctors, nurses and midwives. As we begin the first
full year of our newSustainable
Development Goals, more countries will be working toward universal
health coverage and tomeet their
health-related targetsthrough
stronger, more equitably distributed health workforces that include community
health workers, widespread access to technology and a health team approach to
bringing care to those in need. And for the first time ever, there will be a
global strategy to achieve it:Human Resources
for Health: Workforce 2030is
slated for release in 2016.
9. Mental health for trauma survivors.In 2016, the mental
health consequences of war, displacement,Ebola,gender-based
violence,natural
disastersand other
traumas will become more and more apparent. Today’s global health workforce
isn’t ready for these challenges – there are too few social service workers and
others trained to provide complex, specialized mental health care, and far too
few are based where the need is greatest. In fact, there just aren’t enough
health workers right now to go around – period.
10. Ebola’s unprecedented survivors.Never before have
there been so many survivors of the virus. Survival, it turns out, is both a
boon and a burden – many now face a lifetime ofsocial exile
and chronic health problems. Ebola survivors will present new
health-care challenges in 2016 as health workers learn to care for their unique
needs. We’ll learn more than we’ve ever known about Ebola’s damaging physical,
psychological and economic legacy.
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